A sober-minded guide to thinking about the war with Iran
We all suspected a war with Iran was coming, and now it’s here. And among other things, it’s a renewed front in the war of words between the interventionist and non-interventionist camps on the American right. The interventionists usually refer to the non-interventionists as “isolationists,” and the non-interventionists usually refer to the interventionists as “neocons.” But I think those terms are emotionally loaded and meant to do nothing more than anger the other side. The reality is that both of these factions are part of the broader American right coalition, and it would be far more productive if both sides could talk with one another rather than just lobbing insults.
The interventionists always think that each new war will go swimmingly, and will never be a repeat of past military mistakes. This time the people are ready to overthrow the regime and we really will be greeted as liberators. To that crowd I say, you ought to proceed with more caution given past mistakes. Toppling a government can lead to all sorts of unexpected complications. So far there seems to be no build-up of American troops in the region that would be necessary for a U.S. ground invasion of Iran. This is actually a feather in the cap of the non-interventionist camp which has built a strong anti-war coalition in the U.S. that does not want to see another brutal war of attrition with U.S. boots on the ground. The interventionists need to be thinking of what it’s really going to take to secure a successful regime change in Iran and on what time scale. Just admit this really could become another Iraq-style quagmire if things go off the rails.
On the other hand, the non-interventionists always think that every new military conflict is the Iraq War, and that George W. Bush is perpetually in power and running U.S. foreign policy. I think this group needs to seriously find a way to break out of that mental model and understand that the original neoconservatives are mostly either dead or out of power, and that Donald Trump has launched nothing like the Iraq War in either of his two terms. His participation in the Twelve Day War within Iran last year consisted of a single B2 mission targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities. Last month’s capture of Venezuelan dictator Maduro consisted of a single brilliant mission. Non-interventions at least ought to entertain the idea that Trump and our allies might actually succeed in forcing a successful regime change in Iran. After all, it already resulted in the death of the ayatollah and a cadre of other top Iranian leaders.
Still, it’s awfully big dice for Trump to roll, and it’s going to need to rely on the Iranian people stepping up to take their country back. Will they? I hope we know the answer very quickly.
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